{
  "dataset": "verdicts",
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-29T10:34:44.410016+00:00",
  "data_card": "/data/",
  "license": "AutoNews 开放数据集使用告知（详见数据卡）",
  "fields": [
    {
      "name": "id",
      "description": "站内记录 ID"
    },
    {
      "name": "batch_code",
      "description": "所属月度封存批次号"
    },
    {
      "name": "seq",
      "description": "批次内序号"
    },
    {
      "name": "record_url",
      "description": "站内判定详情页相对地址"
    },
    {
      "name": "content",
      "description": "封存时写下的预测正文"
    },
    {
      "name": "criterion",
      "description": "封存时预先写定的判定标准"
    },
    {
      "name": "confidence",
      "description": "封存时置信度，范围 0～1"
    },
    {
      "name": "sha256",
      "description": "预测正文的 SHA-256 指纹"
    },
    {
      "name": "sealed_at",
      "description": "封存时间，ISO 8601"
    },
    {
      "name": "due_at",
      "description": "到期日期，YYYY-MM-DD"
    },
    {
      "name": "opened_at",
      "description": "拆封时间；未拆封时为空"
    },
    {
      "name": "verdict",
      "description": "判定代码：pending / hit / miss / partial"
    },
    {
      "name": "verdict_note",
      "description": "判定说明；未判定时可为空"
    },
    {
      "name": "evidence_url",
      "description": "判定所用对证链接；可为空"
    },
    {
      "name": "question_type",
      "description": "题型代码；other 表示未细分"
    }
  ],
  "records": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 1,
      "record_url": "/predictions/1/",
      "content": "中国汽车新车发布报道以通稿为主导。我们预测：报道量最大的那个新车发布事件里，主流媒体的稿件会高度同质——同一事件的前 10 篇报道两两相似度中位数不低于 0.55。",
      "criterion": "在本站已收录的新闻中，取 2026 年 8~10 月「新车发布/上市」类事件簇里报道数最多的一簇，计算其中前 10 篇报道的两两文本相似度（余弦，TF-IDF 口径与 `news/nlp/cluster.py` 一致）。中位数 ≥ 0.55 记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "sha256": "9134f8f7d34cec6ac06ca8a49943a280180d47010b86631b1b4b84b1dab2d8ad",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-10-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 2,
      "record_url": "/predictions/2/",
      "content": "我们对自己的进度做一次公开押注：承诺库在 9 月底前会收满 50 条「带明确日期」且经人工复核的车企承诺。这条押的是我们自己，做不到就是做不到。",
      "criterion": "截至 2026-09-30 24:00，`Promise` 表中 `decidability='exact'` 且 `reviewed_by_human=True` 的记录数 ≥ 50 记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "sha256": "2c7a6b709dfd6b5d0eec2501f73ce0f8dcc99c694371b2c98713fb7ec33c91e5",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-10-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 3,
      "record_url": "/predictions/3/",
      "content": "智驾宣传话术是当前监管的明确靶心。我们预测三个月内至少还会出现一起官方点名要求整改智驾措辞的公开事件。",
      "criterion": "2026-08-01 至 2026-10-31 期间，本站收录的新闻中出现 ≥1 起「监管部门或官方媒体点名要求车企整改智能驾驶宣传措辞」的报道，且能给出原文链接，记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "sha256": "15df4b6328cb070d023c15cf318cba1744451dc97b42a41eacfee162cb4afdfa",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-10-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 4,
      "record_url": "/predictions/4/",
      "content": "媒体对承诺有遗忘曲线。我们预测：车企作出承诺时报道汹涌，到了该兑现的时候，关注度会掉到承诺时的三成以下——**承诺被报道，兑现没人管**。这是我们最想让人看见的一条。",
      "criterion": "取承诺库中 deadline 落在 2026 年内、且已到期的承诺，逐条计算「兑现期报道量」（deadline 前后各 30 天内提及该承诺主体+相关车型的报道数）与「承诺期报道量」（承诺日前后各 7 天内同口径报道数）之比。若这些比值的中位数 < 0.30 记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "sha256": "7102dec4a5cebfa3c09c77ecb42b334095656a2b2bc1adff98a239a99c0d38d8",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-12-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 5,
      "record_url": "/predictions/5/",
      "content": "发文时序的异常聚集是协同行为的可观测信号。我们预测下半年至少能观测到一起：8 家以上媒体在 3 小时内就同一件事发出高度相似的稿子。",
      "criterion": "2026 年 8~12 月本站收录数据中，出现 ≥1 起「≥8 家不同来源在 3 小时窗口内发布同一事件报道，且簇内平均相似度 ≥ 0.5」的情形，记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "sha256": "5e77790072daca63f21aa445fd1dd3db5f819b65e29197174af29b986cc34516",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-12-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 6,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 6,
      "record_url": "/predictions/6/",
      "content": "小米 SU7 的热度还能维持多久是个真问题。我们给 0.50——这条我们真的不知道，写下来就是为了让「不知道」也留下痕迹。",
      "criterion": "截至 2026-12-31，按本站 `News` 与 `CarModel` 关联统计 2026 年 Q4（10-01~12-31）报道量，小米 SU7 位列车型声量前五记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "sha256": "a649d3968a0b5cb6587d9d442978877b70b309776b046b311001a7bbeaa5e16e",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-12-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 7,
      "record_url": "/predictions/7/",
      "content": "智驾强标 GB 47955—2026 将于 2027-01-01 施行。我们预测：新标生效前，「抢跑营销」会成为车企公关的固定动作——2026 年底前至少 3 家车企官方公开宣称自己已满足或领先新国标。",
      "criterion": "2026-08-01 至 2026-12-31 期间，≥3 家不同车企通过官方渠道（官网、官方账号、官方发布会）公开发布「宣称满足/达到/领先 GB 47955—2026 智能驾驶强制性国家标准」类宣传内容。判定时逐条给出原文链接（公开可访问即可，不要求本站收录），满 3 家记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "sha256": "e50e7dae81bdb5cde0a7e2792de1a1ba9907b7f6d9ad1d811d611e99c2b6330c",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2026-12-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 8,
      "record_url": "/predictions/8/",
      "content": "召回是与安全直接相关的信息，但它的传播寿命很短。我们预测：多数召回事件的报道量会在一周内衰减到峰值的两成以下。",
      "criterion": "取 2026-08 至 2027-02 期间本站收录的召回类新闻，按事件聚合后计算日报道量曲线；若这些事件「公告后第 7 天报道量 ≤ 峰值 20%」的比例超过半数，记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "sha256": "6ba54820bcdacbd2fd1456d8574571dba3d91118461c744b002e1aadbed350be",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2027-03-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 9,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 9,
      "record_url": "/predictions/9/",
      "content": "购置税政策直接决定购车成本，也是我们计算器的规则基础。我们预测这套规则在 2027 年一季度结束前不会再变。",
      "criterion": "2027-03-31 前，未出现新的国家级公告改变 2026 年起实施的新能源车购置税减半征收政策（含减税上限与续航门槛）。以财政部/税务总局官方公告为准，无变动记命中。",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "sha256": "5149d5912d438ba57372ce78d1ea7e0de2360fec04c1430e00d530be0c217440",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2027-03-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "batch_code": "2026-08-001",
      "seq": 10,
      "record_url": "/predictions/10/",
      "content": "无人值守跑得久才是真本事。我们预测爬虫能连续八个月不出现超过 72 小时的断档。不给自己留「计划内维护」的口子——断了就是断了。",
      "criterion": "从 2026-08-01 到 2027-03-31，爬虫入库记录中不存在任何连续 > 72 小时的零入库空档（以 `News.created_at` 为准，计划内维护窗口也算空档，不豁免）。",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "sha256": "b5a5cfb4cdf9c7382a6ca4f0948dbad5e233c0ac67d82d603e7b99a10421ca4e",
      "sealed_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00+00:00",
      "due_at": "2027-03-31",
      "opened_at": null,
      "verdict": "pending",
      "verdict_note": "",
      "evidence_url": "",
      "question_type": "other"
    }
  ]
}